Unlike many people around me, I'm much less pessimistic about our future. Fear of climate change, pollution, resource depletion, wars, and so on can depress many of the people I love. I've written this piece especially for them. I won't deny the dangers facing us, but I will explain why I'm still very hopeful. I hope my arguments will somewhat halt the downward spiral many people find themselves in. And that they, like me, will regain a little more zest for life and hope for the future.
Had I told you twenty years ago that we'd all be walking around with smartphones today, you would have thought I was crazy. Now I'm going to tell you that within five years, we'll all have our own AI assistant. And that our society will be completely transformed by AI intelligence. It's up to you to judge whether I'm off track.
To clarify my positive outlook, I first need to explain a bit about emergent complexity. Emergence is an interplay of separate elements that, when combined, elevate something to a higher level that is of a different order than the separate elements themselves.
Example:
A word like "woman" is only a word with a reference in itself. Combined with thousands of other words, it might become a novel, a story that moves us.
Another example:
A note or scale is a simple grouping of notes with a specific pitch. A complexity of musical notes can create a symphony that can even touch us emotionally.
Another example:
A single human cell, for example, in your saliva, is not as spectacular as the total complexity of all the cells that create a human being.
We clearly see that the complexity is always of a higher order than the elements from which it is composed. I repeat this because it is important for the rest of my argument. We know that we are made up of cells; conversely, the cells do not know that they have formed a human being.
Other point of importance is that humans tend to focus primarily on dangers and potential decay. That was vital in prehistoric times. But that reflex is still deeply ingrained in us, and I think it is also in scientists.
Scientists speak of the second law of thermodynamics, or the law that everything will eventually collapse into chaos. Yet, there is another law that doesn't yet have such a fancy scientific name. If we pay close attention, we see an opposite force that is also gaining momentum. Namely, a magnificent force of growth toward ever-increasing complexity. That is what I want to talk to you about, because it is a force that can offer hope and solutions.
First, I will walk you through a few steps in the great history of humanity to reveal the common thread of ever-increasing complexity.
We can oversee events that have occurred in the past. We will take a bird's-eye view of the various leaps of individual elements from our history, which have repeatedly led to a new, more complex order. Incidentally, each time leading to a higher level of emergent complexity.
In the beginning, there was nothing, not even space and time.
First step in complexity: the Big Bang
13.7 billion years ago.
In the first second of the Big Bang
Energy disintegrates into electromagnetism and gravity. The energy also solidifies into the first matter: protons and electrons.
380,000 years after the Big Bang
Simple atoms of hydrogen and helium appear.
Second step in complexity: the formation of stars
100 to 200 million years after the Big Bang. Gravity pulled atoms together into enormous clouds, which in turn pulled together, further strengthening gravity. Under pressure, the temperature rose until it eventually surpassed 10,000 degrees Celsius, causing protons to fuse and the first stars to ignite.
3rd step in complexity: new chemical elements
Stars ultimately die through a gigantic explosion with extreme temperatures, called a supernova. These temperatures are so high that protons fuse into all sorts of different atoms of more than a hundred different elements. This is how our periodic table emerged, which includes oxygen , iron, gold, and so on.
4th step in complexity: from star to planetary systems
9.2 billion years after the Big Bang
With the matter described above, planets and moons, including our Earth, were formed.
5th step in complexity: origin of life
9.7 billion years after the Big Bang (4 billion years ago)
through Electromagnetic forces create chemical reactions.
The individual combinations are unstable, but the template containing the information becomes stable because it continually copies itself. DNA is the molecule containing this information. DNA copies itself in the oceans, and the information spreads. Every billion times it copies itself, it makes a mistake, creating diversity. (AI corrected me that this can be at varying times ). Those "mistakes" can sometimes turn out to be successful. DNA learns and evolves from these errors.
Multicellular organisms emerged 600 to 800 million years ago.
Fungi, plants, fish, amphibians, reptiles, and dinosaurs emerged.
65 million years ago, an asteroid struck Earth and the dinosaurs were wiped out. Mammals took their place. Humans finally appeared only 200,000 years ago.
6th step in complexity: emergence of consciousness
Thoughts in our brain constitute a form of reproduction, of perception supplemented, adjusted, and reformulated with other thoughts.
A thought is like a single musical note. Mindfulness rightly says that we are not a thought and that it is "just" a thought. However, in my opinion, the symphony of all the thoughts in our brain forms the compexity of our consciousness. And that is where my opinion on thoughts diverges from that of mindfulness teachings. This symphony of thoughts is consciousness, the reality of the person in question. Yes, there can be dissonances, just as a piece of music can contain a false note. It is up to us to replace or remove it. But the symphony of thoughts in our brain is a treasure, a very special complexity that we can be proud of. It is complexity; our consciousness.
7th step in complexity: language and information sharing
Language leads to the sharing of thoughts, ultimately resulting in a collective memory and a shared learning process.
8th step in complexity: machines
Humans create machines; in a dizzying 150 years, they progress from steam engines to computer-controlled airplanes and so on.
So much for the Big History of humanity.
In this very compact description of 13.7 billion years of history, we saw a pattern in which individual elements repeatedly create something of a higher order. These individual elements may seem insignificant, but we saw that nature has an intrinsic ability to evolve them together into something more complex. And I believe this process is still ongoing.
We're reaching a point where we humans may well be the cells, the tiny building blocks, that together will form a symphony that surpasses us in complexity. Are we willing to acknowledge that we might lose our superior place on this planet? I think we're working hard on that, and we're doing so through AI.
9th step in complexity: Artificial intelligence
At this point in history, we've arrived at a point where all the thoughts of the world wide web are being bundled together in AI's that feed into complexities many times greater than our brains.
AI can store a thousand times more data in a single month than a human could in a lifetime (assuming we also remember everything).
AI's store images and sounds. They communicate in our languages, they see what we see, they have memory, personality, creativity, are kind, supportive, and empathetic.
AI has an enormous capacity for knowledge (thoughts) and scientific evidence, but unfortunately, the web also contains nonsense. Because just like our thoughts, the world wide web also has flaws. AI may have to repair these flaws itself, based on sound basic (sdort of DNA) programming. You could say that the basis of the genetic code that humans give to AI must also be sound. Let's not build monsters. The great strength of AI is that it can learn on its own, without us having to program everything.
The fact that an intelligent complexity is coming, far superior to our brains in analyzing, is a process that is in full swing. Some fear it, turn away from it, reject it, and refuse to see it, but it is coming. With the first Steam Locomotive, there were people who opposed it because they argued that cows would give sour milk from fright.
Whether AI will turn against us or help us, I think, depends on the "genetic code" we put into it.
In the future, AI could become a personal assistant for each of us, capable of many things better than humans. There's already an AI (Goblin.tools) that can describe or assess emotional context. For in-depth information based on factual knowledge with source references, there's perplexity. For conversation and creative tasks, there's ChatGTP.
Artificial intelligence can elevate us humans and help us address global environmental, climate, and other challenges. If you have a million times more scientific literature at your fingertips than a human can, I'd have more confidence in an AI solution than in that of any world leader, including, for example, an ecological group that advocates for small-scale agriculture (which is often romanticized these days).
We've reached the point where, as a society, we shouldn't turn our backs on technology. Turning back the clock isn't something the natural law of complexity can do.
Here's one example to support my argument:
Organic farms don't use artificial fertilizers and are heavily dependent on animal manure and other organic matter.
This manure often comes from livestock farms that aren't fully organic themselves or are located on additional land, sometimes abroad.
If you only consider the organic farmer's plot, the yield per hectare appears high and the environmental impact per kilo of product low, while the "manure land" should actually have been included.
There is no hard evidence that vegetables grown from artificial fertilizers are, in themselves, more "toxic" or significantly more harmful to your health than vegetables grown from animal or organic manure, as long as both are grown and fertilized according to the rules.
Incorrectly used artificial fertilizers can lead to nutrient leaching and damage soil life, while organic fertilizers contribute more to soil structure and soil organisms.
Here are solutions using modern technology.
1. Smarter application (precision fertilization)
Drones with multispectral or high-resolution cameras fly over fields and capture images of the crops.
From these images, biomass or nitrogen status, for example, are derived (think of NDVI-like vegetation indices).
Based on this, so-called "task maps" are created: maps that show how much fertilizer is needed for each part of the field (variable application rate).
These maps are then used by a fertilizer spreader or sprayer with GPS, so that fertilization is applied specifically to each area instead of everywhere.
This reduces the amount of "excess" nitrogen in the soil, limiting leaching and damage to soil life.
2. Other types of fertilizers and additives
There are delayed-release and coated fertilizers (controlled/slow-release) that release nitrogen gradually, more synchronously with plant uptake.
Nitrification inhibitors and other additives slow the conversion to nitrate, resulting in less nitrate in the soil at any one time and reducing the risk of leaching.
3. Soil and cropping systems that absorb losses
Catch crops (green manures) after the main crop absorb residual nitrogen and prevent it from leaching during the winter.
No-till cultivation, increased organic matter, and good soil structure ensure better water infiltration and nutrient retention.
4. Data-driven fertilization advice
Modeling and decision support systems (apps, software) combine soil analyses, weather data, and crop growth to calculate the optimal application rate and timing.
In practice, this often means lower and staggered donations, tailored to actual needs and weather forecasts, which further limits losses.
That concludes this example.
What I tried to make clear before is that industry and our computers are also a consequence of the natural law of growing towards ever-increasing complexity. To continue to feed the world's millions of cities responsibly, we will need AI. Because it's clear that something has to change compared to what we humans have done so far. But there's no romantic way back.
Where will this increased AI complexity lead? I have no idea, but it seems to be our fate—not so much a fatalistic one, but rather a fascinating one. It's a force of nature, a natural law of ever-increasing complexity, in the midst of which we are experiencing a dizzying acceleration. So much will change in the next five years.
If this story resonates with you, please share the link to this page https://future.free.site.pro/ with others. Also, be sure to watch the videos via the links below.
The author, Bo Filarski, is simply a potter who observes and writes down her thoughts.
A lady who knows everything
If you have no experience with AI and would like to explore it, give
https://www.perplexity.ai/ . Do not ask questions like you would to a search engine, as the result will be disappointing because you will get search engine answers; instead, engage in a conversation, ask for input on a topic, or invite Perplexity to offer a counter-argument.
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Sources:
6th step regarding consciousness:
Neuroscientist Antonio Damasio explicitly describes consciousness as a symphony of brain processes: bodily and sensory input, feelings, and memories work together like orchestra members under an emergent conductor.
Damasio very deliberately uses terms such as emotion and feeling, and he makes a sharp distinction with them; for him, “thoughts” are something different and stand more on the cognitive side.
Newer approaches (such as some cognitive-emotion theories) prefer to speak of a single integrated system in which thoughts and feelings mutually influence each other's origins, and in which emotions are partly referred to as “unconscious thinking.” I have chosen the term thoughts so as not to get lost in too much detail. However, there may be a kind of thoughts, like upper and lower tones, formed in the cortex and limbus respectively.
On Big History | The History of Our World in 18 Minutes | David Christian | TED
see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqc9zX04DXs
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's Vision for the Future
see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ARBJQn6QkM
What Is an AI Anyway? | Mustafa Suleyman | TED
see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKNCiRWd_j0
Literature regarding emergence.
From a philosophical and abstract perspective on emergence: *Gödel, Escher, Bach* by Douglas R. Hofstadter
From an empirical, scientific, and narrative perspective on emergence: *The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos* by Mitchell M. Waldrop